Day Trade Odds

Why it doesn't pick long or short

We tested many ways to choose a side from the same readings, then checked them on trading days the model had never seen. None beat trading costs with confidence, and taking the same side every time finished in profit about half the time. So the tool shows direction as a coin flip, with the evidence, instead of a call it can't back up.

The plan

The target is 1.5 times the stock's typical daily move, kept between 1% and 3%. The stop is two-thirds of that distance, a 1.5 to 1 reward to risk, and any trade still open is closed at the session close. Because the stop is closer, it is hit more often than the target. Because most trades end at the close with a small gain or loss, the fair line for finishing in profit is about 50%, not the 40% a pure 1.5 to 1 trade would suggest.

What moves the odds

Time left in the session, how far the stock and the market have moved since the open, the opening gap, where the price sits in today's range, today's volume and range so far compared with the same time on recent sessions, recent volatility, the stock's trend against its 20- and 50-day averages, and the market's past week. Each reading lists the factors that mattered most and which way they pushed.

Updated after every 15-minute candle

During market hours a new reading is taken each time a 15-minute candle closes, using only finished candles, until 30 minutes before the close. Each one shows the candles behind it and their volume against the usual volume at that time of day. By 10:30, four candles have closed that a search at 9:30 couldn't see, so the target and stop odds are sharper, but in testing more candles did not help pick a side.

A report card graded every trading day

The model was fitted on one stretch of dates, tuned on the next and graded on later days it never saw. After each session closes, every stock on a fixed list is scored at the open and after every 15-minute candle, then graded against what actually happened, so the public record can't be flattered by which tickers visitors look up.

Frequently asked questions

Does Day Trade Odds tell me whether to go long or short?

No. On trading days the model never saw, no rule for choosing a side beat trading costs with confidence, so the tool shows direction as a coin flip and gives one set of odds that applies to either side.

What do the percentages mean?

For the plan shown: the chance the target is reached before the close, the chance the stop is hit first, and the chance neither happens and the trade ends at the close. The three add up to 100%.

Why is the stop more likely than the target?

The stop sits two-thirds as far from the entry as the target, so the price reaches it more often. Most trades end at the close with a small gain or loss instead, which is why the chance of finishing in profit is about 50% on either side.

How often do the odds update?

During market hours, after every 15-minute candle closes. Each reading uses only finished candles, so a new one is ready shortly after 9:45, 10:00, 10:15 and so on, until 30 minutes before the close. The page refreshes on its own while it's open. More candles sharpen the target and stop odds, mostly because less of the day is left, but they don't reveal which way the stock will go.

How accurate are the odds?

The report card on the page compares predicted and actual hit rates on trading days the model never trained on, plus a forward record graded after every session on a fixed list of stocks. Visitor lookups never count toward it.

Which stocks can I check?

Liquid individual stocks listed on major U.S. exchanges. ETFs, funds, OTC listings, stocks under $5 and thinly traded stocks are not scored.

How do I access Day Trade Odds?

Day Trade Odds is included with Stock Smith Membership at $19.99/month. Sign in and become a member to use the tool.