The Stock Smith Learning Desk
Plain-English guides to the quantitative methods behind Stock Smith — Monte Carlo simulations, volatility, confidence bands, options income, and the trading strategies our autonomous bots run. No jargon, no fluff.
- What Is a Monte Carlo Stock Simulation? A Plain-English Guide — A Monte Carlo stock simulation runs thousands of possible price paths to map the full range of where a stock could go. Here is how it works and how to read one.
- Geometric Brownian Motion: The Math Behind Stock Price Simulations — Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) is the model behind most stock simulations and option pricing. Here is what drift and volatility mean and why GBM is used.
- How to Read Confidence Bands on a Stock Forecast — Confidence bands show the realistic range around a forecast. Learn how to read 80% and 95% bands, what a wide vs narrow cone means, and how to use them.
- What 'Probability of Gain' Really Means on a Stock Forecast — Probability of gain is the share of simulated outcomes that finished above today's price. Learn what it does and does not tell you about a stock.
- Covered Calls Explained: How the Income Strategy Works — A covered call sells upside on a stock you own in exchange for immediate premium income. Learn how covered calls work, their payoff, and their trade-offs.
- Swing Trading vs Day Trading: Which Strategy Fits You? — Swing trading holds positions for days to weeks; day trading closes everything before the bell. Compare the risk, time commitment, and mindset of each.
- What Is Volatility in Stocks, and Why Does It Matter? — Volatility measures how much a stock's price swings. Learn how it is calculated, the difference between historical and implied volatility, and why it drives risk.
- How to Trade Stocks on Webull: Step-by-Step Guide — Step-by-step guide to trading on Webull: open an account, place your first order, manage risk, and connect Stock Smith's real-money Auto Trader.
- How to Read a Stock Chart: Candlesticks & Trends — Learn to read stock charts: what candlesticks show, why volume matters, and how to spot a trend — the three things every beginner trader needs.
- Market Orders vs Limit Orders: When to Use Each — Market orders fill immediately at any price; limit orders fill only at your target price or better. Learn when to use each and common mistakes to avoid.
- What Is a Stop-Loss and How to Set One That Works — A stop-loss is your pre-planned exit when a trade goes against you. This guide explains how stops work, where to place them, and the common mistakes that get traders stopped out for no reason.
- Dollar-Cost Averaging: The Simplest Way to Invest Consistently — Dollar-cost averaging means investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule, no matter the price. Here is why it works, who it suits, and how it compares to trying to time the market.
- How to Build Your First Stock Portfolio — Goal-setting, diversification, position sizing, and a repeatable process for managing your first stock portfolio — a beginner's framework.
- What Is Market Capitalization? Small, Mid, and Large Caps Explained — Market cap is a company's total share value and the fastest way to gauge its size and risk profile. Here is how it is calculated and what small, mid, and large caps mean for you.
- Bull vs Bear Markets: What They Mean and How to Invest in Each — A bull market rises, a bear market falls - but the real difference is how each one changes investor behavior. Here is what the terms mean and how to stay disciplined in both.
- Risk vs Reward: How to Think About Every Trade — Every investment trades potential reward for risk. Learning to weigh the two - and to size positions around them - is what separates disciplined investors from gamblers.
- What Are Dividends and How Do They Work? — Dividends are cash payments companies make to shareholders. This guide covers how they work, key dates, yield, and how reinvesting them compounds returns over time.
- How to Diversify a Portfolio (and Why It Reduces Risk) — Diversification spreads your money across different investments so no single loss can sink you. Learn what real diversification looks like and how to build it step by step.
- How to Read an Earnings Report: Revenue, EPS, and Guidance — Every quarter, public companies report results that move their stock. This guide explains the numbers that matter - revenue, earnings per share, and guidance - and how to read them.
- 10 Common Investing Mistakes Beginners Make (and How to Avoid Them) — Most investing losses come from avoidable mistakes, not bad luck. Here are ten of the most common beginner errors - from chasing hype to skipping stop-losses - and how to sidestep them.
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